‘New Normal’: Is Pakistan trying to set new red lines with Afghan Taliban?
Islamabad, Pakistan – October 15, 2025 :In a dramatic escalation of long-simmering tensions, deadly clashes along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border have left dozens dead and raised questions about whether Islamabad is adopting a harder line toward its former allies, the Afghan Taliban. The violence, which erupted over the weekend and continued into this week, mirrors tactics Pakistan has long criticized India for employing—retaliatory strikes across sovereign borders in response to alleged cross-border terrorism.
The latest flare-up began with explosions and gunfire in Kabul on Thursday night, which the Taliban government swiftly blamed on Pakistan. Kabul accused Pakistani forces of orchestrating the attacks, vowing retaliation. Fighting then intensified on Saturday, with Pakistan claiming it neutralized over 200 Taliban fighters and seized 21 Afghan border posts. The Taliban countered that 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed, while independent reports suggest a grim toll: at least 23 Pakistani troops dead and 29 injured, alongside more than a dozen Afghan civilians martyred and over 100 wounded.
Afghan spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid took to X (formerly Twitter) to condemn the assaults, stating, “More than 12 civilians were martyred and more than 100 were injured. After that, Afghan forces were forced to take retaliatory action.” Pakistan’s military, meanwhile, reported destroying a Taliban training facility and repelling “unprovoked” incursions near the Kurram district on Tuesday, with no immediate comment on the Kabul blasts.
This “new normal,” as some analysts describe it, comes amid a surge in attacks inside Pakistan attributed to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group ideologically aligned with but independent of the Afghan Taliban. Since the Taliban’s 2021 return to power in Kabul, TTP violence has skyrocketed, with over 600 clashes or attacks on Pakistani security forces in the past year alone—already surpassing all of 2024 by October. Islamabad alleges the Taliban is providing sanctuary to the TTP, as well as groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and ISIS-Khorasan (ISKP), fueling a death toll among Pakistani personnel that could hit 2,400 this year—the deadliest in a decade.
Earlier diplomatic overtures offered hope for de-escalation. In April, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met Taliban counterpart Amir Khan Muttaqi in Kabul, followed by China-brokered talks in May and August. But those efforts now appear fragile, overshadowed by the border bloodshed.
The timing adds intrigue. The clashes coincided with Muttaqi’s historic visit to New Delhi—the first by a senior Taliban official since 2021—where he met Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. This outreach, amid thawing India-Taliban ties, has Pakistan on edge, with allegations that New Delhi is stoking unrest in its border provinces (claims India denies).
A Path to Dialogue—or Deeper Conflict?
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, in a rare rebuke, questioned the Taliban’s legitimacy for the first time, demanding “concrete and verifiable actions against these terrorist elements by the Taliban regime” and calling for a more inclusive government. “We also hope that one day, the Afghan people would be emancipated, and they would be governed by a true representative government,” the statement read.
Analysts urge caution. “No country can afford to open war fronts on all its borders,” warned former Pakistani ambassador Seema Ilahi Baloch, advocating China as a mediator. Aamer Raza of the University of Peshawar echoed that sentiment, noting Pakistan’s restraint despite its firepower advantage. Fahad Nabeel of Geopolitical Insights questioned the opacity of Pakistan’s strikes, warning it could erode credibility if future attacks prompt similar ambiguity.
As regional powers like China, Iran, and Russia press the Taliban to curb militancy—reiterated at October’s Moscow Format talks—the border simmers. Basit remains skeptical: “What really is the endgame here? Are these strikes going to change the calculus of [the] Afghan Taliban… or will it drive them to forge a closer nexus with [the] TTP?”.
With tensions unlikely to dissipate soon, the fragile detente of earlier 2025 hangs by a thread, threatening broader instability in a region already strained by proxy wars and shifting alliances.
